Geopolitical Tension Leads to Increased Strain on Market

What We Are Watching This Week                                                                                         

  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey
  • US Retail Sales
  • FOMC Interest Rate Decision
  • US Leading Indicators

Highlights From Last Week

  • Consumer Price Index
  • Producer Price Index
  • Consumer Confidence

U.S. stocks declined over the week, with smaller-cap indexes leading the retreat. The S&P MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 dropped 1.46% and 1.49%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.32%, slipping back into negative territory for the year. Although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined, they remained positive year-to-date. Markets had shown strength through Thursday, supported by better-than-expected economic data and encouraging developments in U.S.–China trade talks, including a preliminary agreement to ease tensions and suggestions from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the 90-day tariff pause might be extended for countries negotiating in “good faith.” However, sentiment reversed sharply on Friday following news that Israel had launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, prompting a retaliatory response from Iran. The escalation in geopolitical tensions sent oil prices soaring—boosting energy stocks—but weighed heavily on broader equity markets, erasing earlier gains and leaving major indexes lower for the week.

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Warren Gerow is an independent investment wealth consultant at Sightline Wealth Management. 

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